Decision Making: Drivers of Good Decisions

EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE OCT.2009

LEADERSHIP

Decision Making: Drivers of Good Decisions

-- GRK Murty
Managing Editor,
IUP, Hyderabad, India.
He can be reached at grkmurty@icfaiuniversity.in

Decision making is the prime concern of every leader. Its practice however, varies from leader to leader in the ways they seek information and generate alterna-tives. And in between, brain too plays its own mischief: it tends to drive leaders towards their personal desires that have nothing to do with organiza-tional interests. A way out of these decision making-traps has been finely carved by Valmiki in his epic, Ramayana.

"Life is the sum of all your choices", said Albert Camus aptly. The same holds good even for organizations—their success or failure is the culmination of a series of decisions taken over their lifetime. Thus, decision making remains at the very heart of not only personal and professional lives, but also business organizations.
Bill George, former professor of Organizational Behavior, states that for organizations to make good decisions, "contention is essential". And for this to happen, the top must have the courage to demand and reward high contention, else it will not operate in other places. According to him, effective decision making involves: one, raising probing questions and insisting that managers present each situation in objective terms rather than with a positive spin, and two, acknowledging and thanking those who disagree by telling them that it is their discussion that made the ultimate decision much better. Indeed, George recommends: "You need to reward and promote the mavericks or else the organization will lose its creative edge. You try to create tension inside because the outside challenge is so great."
Michael Tushman, professor of Organizational Behavior, HBS, is also of the opinion that for sound decision making in organizations, there must be an aware, open, and inquiring senior team. According to him, unless senior teams are able to hold paradoxical ideas, the past will always trump the future—people prefer not to know about the future because it is so threatening to entrenched interests and to career competencies.
There is a scene in Valmiki's Ramayana, where—upon Vibhisana deserting his brother and coming to Rama seeking his refuge—we witness Rama exhibiting a similar posture while deciding on Vibhisana's request for his refuge. The story runs like this: Vibhisana, deserting his brother Ravana, approaches Sugriva and his army saying: "Mighty monkeys, please do not fear me... I have now come here to seek Rama's refuge. Please convey the news of my arrival to that great man." But the characteristically suspicious Sugriva, viewing Vibhisana's coming with misgivings, says to Rama: "Lord, Ravana's brother Vibhisana has come seeking your refuge. These Raksasas are by nature untrustworthy...Please advise me."
Rama sees Vibhisana and is impressed by him. Yet, saying, "the advice tendered by Sugriva about Vibhisana is extremely reasonable and has been heard by you too", he seeks the opinion of monkey lords on granting refuge to Vibhisana. Angada is the first to give his opinion: "Vibhisana should not be dealt with as trustworthy all at once in as much as, having arrived direct from the enemy's presence, he yet deserves to be viewed with suspicion in everyway. For, people of perfidious mind move about concealing their motive and direct their blow at one's weak points: that may prove to be a disaster of no small magnitude. ...One should adopt a course of action if advantages are likely to follow from it, and should reject it if it is thought to be disadvantageous. ... O protector of men!"
When his turn comes, Sarabha advises: "Let a spy be immediately dispatched to shadow him, O tiger among men! After sending out spies and thoroughly testing Vibhisana through such a one of penetrating judgment, welcome should then be actually extended to him according to his deserts."
The clear-sighted Jambavan, after a careful reflection on the issue, advises: "Vibhisana has come away deserting the sinful Ravana—who bears deep-rooted enmity to us—without regard to place and time. He should (therefore) be viewed with suspicion in everyway."
In a similar vein, Mainda, who was adept in discriminating what is right and what is wrong, advises logically: "Vibhisana is well-known to be the youngest (half-) brother of the celebrated Ravana. Let him be gently interrogated progressively... Having correctly read his mind by recourse to reason as to whether he is vicious or not, you should act accordingly."
Finally, when it comes to the turn of Hanuman, he advises: "O King Rama, ... I detect a fallacy in what has been submitted by your counselors about ascertaining the advantages and disadvantages that are likely to accrue to us from Vibhisana; for action (in the shape of testing Vibhisana) is not possible (at this stage). His capacity (for doing a good or evil turn) cannot be ascertained without charging him with some duty. And entrusting him with some duty too all at once appears erroneous to me. No justification can be given in favor of the suggestion offered by your counselors that it is advisable to send out spies (to ascertain the bona fides of Vibhisana); for no purpose will be served thereby. With regard to the observation that yonder Vibhisana has come away without regard to place and time, it is my desire (presently) to submit according to my own (poor) lights how this is the place and time fit for his arrival. (Pray) listen to my argument. Judicious indeed and becoming of his wisdom (too) is his arrival at this place at the present moment in that he considers you superior (from the moral point of view) to Ravana, has also found merits in you and demerits in the latter and has (duly) perceived the evil-mindedness of Ravana and your (extraordinary) prowess likewise.
Anent the suggestion made by Mainda that Vibhisana should be interrogated by spies of unknown identity I have my own considered opinion (to give), O King! While being interrogated, a clever man would at once grow suspicious about the question (which was being put to him). (Nay) on coming to know that he was being interrogated to no purpose a prospective friend, arrived in search of relief, would get angry. Moreover, the intention of an enemy cannot be found out all at once, O King! In the meantime, you should fully discover the good intentions of Vibhisana by means of his diversified tones. Even as he speaks, his malevolence is not detected in the least. His countenance too is placid. Therefore no doubt (whatsoever) exists in my mind (about him). A deceitful person does not come with a mind free from misgiving and unembarrassed. Vibhisana's speech too is not faulty (from the point of view of language or spirit). Hence no suspicion exists in my mind (about him). Even when it is being veiled, one's intention cannot be fully concealed. The facial expression of men perforce reveals their inner feeling without doubt. Nay, the action of Vibhisana is comfortable to place and time, O prince of those who know how to act! An action deliberately accomplished speedily crowns one with success. Fully considering your endeavor (to storm Lanka, in the form of building a bridge across the sea) and realizing Ravana to be vainglorious and sinful of conduct, nay, hearing of Vali (who went clockwise round the four oceans squeezing Ravana in his arm-pit) having been killed (with a single arrow) as well as of Sugriva having been crowned king (by you), Vibhisana (who longed for sovereignty) has for his part deliberately come here. Taking all this into consideration, it seems advisable in any case to accept him as our own. A plea has been given by me to the best of my ability in favor of the ogre's sincerity. Having heard it, O prince of the wise, you are indeed the best judge to decide the rest (viz., what should be done)."
Rama, perhaps, like any other modern day leader, is delighted to hear what is in his mind from the mouth of Hanuman. He then replies: "There exists a desire in me too to say something about Vibhisana. I would have all that heard by you, who are devoted to my welfare. I cannot refuse to receive under any circumstances him who has come (to me) in a friendly spirit. Even if there is any wickedness in him, his acceptance is not reprehensible in the eyes of good people."
Reflecting on Sri Rama's reply, Sugriva submits: "What does it matter if he is wicked or otherwise? He is a ranger of the night (after all). When he can desert his (own half-) brother fallen in such adversity, there is none on earth to him whom he would not betray."
Hearing the submission of Sugriva and looking round on all, Sri Rama says with a smile: "Without studying scriptures and serving one's elders it is not possible to utter the like of what Sugriva (the ruler of monkeys) has said. Something which is very subtle, nay, which is patent in all rulers and well-known to all vividly strikes me as present in Vibhisana. One's own kindred and the rulers of adjoining territories have been declared to be enemies and strike in times of adversity. Therefore he has come here. Nay, relatives who are not malevolent look upon their own people as friends. In the case of kings (rulers of men), however, a kinsman is often worth suspecting, even though virtuous. Anent the disadvantage which has actually been pointed out by you in accepting as one's own an individual of the hostile party, I shall (presently) make a reply in conformity with the scriptures; (please) listen to it. We are not his relatives for that matter, while the ogre is covetous of sovereignty. Ogres are learned too (sometimes); hence Vibhisana is worth accepting. When united (with us), they (Vibhisana and others) will feel free from anxiety and highly rejoice. Nay, this loud appeal (of theirs for protection) shows that fear of one another has seized the ogres. In this way they will fall a prey to dissension. Hence, Vibhisana is deserving of acceptance."
Listening which, the sagacious Sugriva, getting up submits meekly: "Know this ranger of the night to have been dispatched by Ravana. I consider it advisable to take him captive. Prompted by perfidious motive, this ogre has come here as directed to deliver a blow at you when you are unsuspecting or at me when I stand inspired with confidence or at Lakshmana...He therefore deserves to be killed..."
Having heard and pondered over the submission of Sugriva, Rama replies to Sugriva smilingly: "Be he malevolent or otherwise, is this ranger of the night capable of doing the subtlest mischief to me in any way? I can, if I so desire, kill with my finger-tip (all) the well-known fiends, Danavas, Yaksas and ogres on earth, O ruler of monkey hordes! ...O jewel among monkeys!...Hark! There is a string of sacred verses inculcating virtue and sung in the past by an eminent Rsi, Kandu:
`In the name of humanity one should not strike even an enemy arrived at one's door and piteously soliciting protection with joined palms, O scourge of your enemies! An enemy come for protection against his enemies, be he distressed or (even) proud, should be protected (even) at the cost of one's life by one who has subdued one's mind. If from fear or folly or even from desire (of some gain) a man does not justly protect a refugee according to his capacity, the sin incurred by him is despised in the world. (Nay) if, remaining unprotected, a refugee perishes before the eyes of the man who is able to protect him, the former takes away all his merit.'
I shall follow the excellent counsel of Kandu: Sakrdeva prapannaya tavasmi iti ca yacate, / Abhayam sarva bhutebhyo dadamy etat vratam mama—I vouchsafe security against all living beings to him who comes to me only once and seeks protection (from me), saying `I am yours': such is my vow. Bring him (hither), O jewel among monkeys, be he Vibhisana or Ravana himself, O Sugriva! Security has been granted in his favor by me."
Being convinced of what Rama said, Sugriva says, "What wonder, ... that you have spoken aright at this moment, full of goodness as you are and devoted to the path of the virtuous. This inner mind of mine too knows Vibhisana to be sincere; moreover, he has also been fully tested in every way (by Hanuman) by recourse to inference based on his expression. Therefore let the highly sagacious Vibhisana soon be in our company on equal terms with us, O scion of Raghu, and enjoy our friendship."
What is interesting to know from the whole episode is: Rama has invited individual opinions of his top brass on Vibhisana's request, encouraged `contention', addressed their contention by offering his explanations/clarifications on the doubts raised by them with a smile and finally, sticking to his `core values', decides on the issue himself. It is a typical display of what Allan R Cohen, The Edward A Madden distinguished professor of global leadership at Babson College has written about `shared leadership' in his book, Power Up: Transforming Organizations through Shared Leadership—Rama encourages his top team to serve him as advisers in taking the toughest decisions, while retaining the responsibility for the final decision with himself.
This scene also exhibits Rama's typical attributes of a transformational leader, as identified by N M Ticho and M A Devanna in their 1986 book—The Transformational Leader: perceive themselves as agents of change (by expressing a desire to follow the excellent counsel of Kandu, which is exceedingly righteous and is conducive to fame and actually leads to heaven at the time of reward, paves the way for others to practice virtue); not afraid of taking risks, but is not reckless (is willing to grant refuge even to the enemy's brother, Vibhisana, but discusses the pros and cons with aides); believes in people and is attentive to their needs (addresses the apprehensions of monkey lords about Vibhisana, and dispels them saying, "I can, if I so desire, kill with my fingertip the well-known fiends, Danavas, Yaksas and ogres on earth, O ruler of monkey hordes!"); able to identify and articulate his own set of core values ("Sakrdeva prapannaya tavasmi iti ca yacate, / Abhayam sarva bhutebhyo dadamy etat vratam mama—I vouchsafe security against all living beings to him who comes to me only once and seeks protection (from me), saying `I am yours': such is my vow"); a careful and disciplined thinker, and trusts his own intuitions.
This style of decision making by Rama—seeking lots of inputs from others and exploring a wide range of viewpoints, including those that conflict with his own, such as that of Angada, Sarabha, Jambavan and Sugriva before arriving at his final decision—is also typical of `integrative' process of decision making described by Kenneth R Brousseau, Michael J Driver, Gary Hourihan, and Rikard Larsson in their HBR article, "The Seasoned Executive's Decision Making Style."
Now, as against Rama's style of decision making, let us take a look at how Ravana receives advice from his counselors. Presiding over the court, he says to his courtiers: "You are all wise statesmen, endowed with foresight. I do not have to tell you how success in war is achieved by careful preplanning.... I appeal to you to advise in the best tradition, keeping in mind the strength of Rama and his followers." Despite such wise urge, his courtiers—not knowing in full the strength of the enemy besides lacking political wisdom and intelligence—start speaking with joined palms: "Lord, you have in your armory many invincible weapons. Even in the nether world you have conquered gods. So why should you fear the mere mortals?"
His counselors continue: "Lord, your son Indrajit has vanquished the king of gods, Indra. Surely, your son alone can defeat Rama and his followers. Indrajit, Prahasta, Durmukha, Vajradamstra, Nikumbha, Rabhasa and Mahaparswa from our army can subdue both the brothers." However, his brother Vibhisana warns Ravana saying, "There is no power on earth which can put down Rama. It is not at all desirable to make enmity without any purpose. The only way of escaping from the wrath of Rama is to return Sita and seek his forgiveness. (Pray) renounce at once anger, which destroys happiness and virtues. Pursue righteousness, which enhances joy and fame. Be pacified so that we may survive with our sons and relations; (and) let Sita be restored to Rama." Not being sure of his counsel prevailing on Ravana, Vibhisana again pleads: "Your lustful obsession has blinded you to truth and justice. Please do not let such craving ruin you and your race." Hearing Vibhisana, Ravana's anger becomes greater, and as such he summarily rejects his advice—a typical case of the dictum, "the brain's desire for rewards is a principal source of bad decisions" (Gardiner Morse, "Decisions and Desire", HBR, January 2006). It is in order here to recall that neuroscience studies carried out by Brian Knutson using fMRI to study the brain's reaction for the prospect of receiving money reveal that it was the anticipation—the chase that one initiates for possessing what one likes—and not the reward itself, that arouses people. In other words, the brain distinguishes clearly between the thrill of the hunt and the pleasure of the feast. It is therefore safe to infer that it is Ravana's infatuation with the hope of winning Sita that prevents him from seeing the logic in what Vibhisana says and not his unconcern for the welfare of his citizens, else he would have not at all summoned the court to seek council's advice.
There is yet another scene in which we witness this passion of Ravana for Sita disabling him from seeing the wisdom in his well wishers' sayings. When his turn comes, Kumbakarna, while subtly chiding, promises all help saying: "Brother, what you have already done was done. You have lent yourself to the whims of individual pleasure. It is too late to consider the rightness or wrongness of your action. I shall help you as much as I can." This moralizing and patronizing tone of Kumbakarna enrages him and as he is about to reprimand him, Mahaparswa intercedes with joined palms saying palliative words to pacify him. Interestingly, what Mahaparswa said—"That man is a fool, who, even after reaching a forest …and having duly found honey does not drink it. Who can lord it over you, O destroyer of foes?"—affords comfort to him, for that is what he is infatuated with; while his own brother's sagely advice rocks him. It is this weakness for selective listening—`the confirming-evidence trap'—that leaders are required to consciously shun while making decisions else, they can seldom make decisions objectively.
Being typical of a leader who is highly optimistic most of the time with a tendency to exaggerate his own talents, Ravana not only dismisses Vibhisana's advice to return Sita and seek forgiveness from Rama but also banishes him and proclaims that it is foolish of Rama to wage a war against him without knowing his powers and his powerful weapons that subdued even the gods in heaven—a bizarre display of a cognitive bias, "the representativeness heuristic", under which leaders tend to assess "the likelihood of an event's occurrence by the similarity of that occurrence to their stereotypes of similar occurrences" (Loren Gary, "Cognitive Bias: Systematic Errors in Decision Making", HBR, 1998). That aside, what is intriguing to note from the scene is that there is no debate on Ravana's banishment of Vibhisana. The court appears to be in complete agreement with him, and unlike Alfred P Sloan Jr., President of GM in 1920s, who being dissatisfied of the Board's complete agreement on the subject postponed the issue to the next meeting to give time "to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about", Ravana—despite Vibhisana's advice that is gentle but wholesome, logical, of great significance that can do good to the ogres for all ages to come—wholly driven by his passion for Sita replying: "I see no big cause for fear from any quarter whatsoever", retires from the court. Secondly, there is no dynamism—an element that is essential for good decisions to emerge—in the inputs given to Ravana by the group, except for the logical submission of Vibhisana, which the leader of course silenced by summarily rejecting it, a stark contrast to what we have witnessed in the scene where Rama sought opinion from his top team of advisors upon which they submitted their well articulated reasoning, backed by logic and concern for the safety of all, against and for granting refuge to Vibhisana.
This bias of Ravana to anchor with what he has already committed to, comes to the fore glaringly in another scene where Malyavan, the maternal grandfather of Ravana, a sagacious ogre tries to convince Ravana about his folly saying: "That monarch, O King, who is well versed in the sciences and follows the path of prudence enjoys sovereignty for a long time and brings his enemies under subjection. ... Even virtue, which is (so) exalted, was struck at the root and evil embraced by you while ranging the worlds (for conquest). Hence (it is that) our enemies (who have embraced virtue and renounced evil) are stronger than we. ...Beholding numerous and multifarious dreadful portents foreboding evils of various kinds, I foresee the extermination of all the ogres. ...(Therefore) conclude peace, O Ravana with Sri Rama, a ruler of men. Having come to know of his exploits (as well as of the evil portents in Lanka), let that which is good for the future be done after mature consideration."
Ravana, however, is in no mood to listen to the salutary advice tendered by Malyavan. On the contrary, having fallen prey to anger, Ravana, knitting his eyebrows, replies to Malyavan: "This noxious and harsh utterance, which has been made (by you), taking it to be salutary (for me) and taking sides with the enemy, has not caught my ears ...I fear I have been told such harsh words by you either because of spitefulness to me, an illustrious warrior, or because of your predilection to the foe or because you were incited by the enemy to do so. Indeed, without (such) instigation what learned man, who has grasped the truth of the scriptures would address harsh words to a mighty man still in power?"
He goes on to claim, "Of whom will Ravana entertain fear in an encounter—Ravana, whom even gods dare not withstand in a duel?" His intoxication for power culminates in his saying, "Dvidha bhajyeyamapyevam na nameyantu kasyacit /Esa me sahajo dosah svabhavo duratikramah—I would fain break in two, but would never bend before anyone. This is my inherent weakness. Nature is hard to overcome." In that hubris, he "truly promises" to Malyavan that even if Rama enters Lanka by crossing the sea along with his army of monkeys, he will not return alive.
This whole episode reveals how "in making decisions you may be at the mercy of your mind's strange workings" (John S Hammond, Ralph L Keeney and Howard Raiffa)—employing unconscious routines called `heuristics' in decision making. Ravana's outright rejection of Malyavan's advice clearly establishes how deeply he was in `the status quo trap'. His assertion, "I would fain break in two, but would never bend before anyone" clearly shows his strong bias towards perpetuating the status quo—a desire that lay deep in his psyche to protect his ego from damage. As is typical of a `heuristic' personality, Ravana's "psychological miscues" made it harder for him to be wise-enough to see the merit in Malyavan's advice and the result is: death at the hands of Rama. Obviously, when "emotion-driven animal brains" participate aggressively in the decision making process logic gets beaten. On the other hand, as the neurologist, Antonio Damasio said in his 1994 book, Descartes' Error, sound decisions come from a cool head, as that of Rama.
The above scenes constructed by Valmiki clearly make one strongly believe in what Garry Emmons (senior associate editor of the HBS Alumni Bulletin) said: "History shows that the best and the brightest often make mistakes because they won't listen to what they falsely believe is not worth hearing. Shutting out voices that might say otherwise can be risky. Decisions are seldom better for silence, and overcoming that is a key task for the leader of any organization."
The quotes from Ramayana are taken from "Srimad Valmiki-Ramayana", Vol. II, published by Gita Press, Gorakhpur, India. The author acknowledges the same gratefully.